The “Ozempic Economy”: How Weight-Loss Drugs Are Reshaping U.S. Retail, Fast-Food, and Fitness Stocks Through New Consumer Spending Habits
- Tyler Caputo
- Jan 22
- 7 min read
As millions of Americans embrace the fad of weight-loss drugs, the effects are showing up not only on scales but in quarterly earnings as well. Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) weight-loss medications such as Ozempic and Zepbound have captivated the country, with around 8-10 million Americans receiving prescriptions so far (PwC, 2024). These drugs work by suppressing hunger and reducing caloric intake by up to 39% in some cases.
As consumers on GLP-1s are spending less money on foods and drinks, investors have begun re-pricing restaurant, retail, and fitness equities. Fast-food giants such as McDonald’s and Chipotle have experienced some volatility as of recent, as analysts forecast a sharp drop in demand, while retailers like Walmart and Target are increasing investments in the pharmacy and wellness categories of their stores to offset potential losses within their grocery departments. Meanwhile, fitness brands are thriving as consumers seek to preserve muscle mass and complement their pharmaceutical solution to weight loss with fitness.
This article argues that the “Ozempic economy” is the driving force behind current market trends and will reshape how investors view consumer-facing sectors for the future. Fast-food stocks are facing persistent headwinds; retailers are reimagining the makeup of inventory in stores, and fitness companies are proving to be the long-term beneficiaries of the current economic landscape.
Fast-Food Stocks
Fast-food chains thrive on consumers impulsively giving into their hunger; however, GLP-1 drugs directly combat this by suppressing a person’s urge to eat. According to Food Business News (2025), active GLP-1 users are spending 42% less on quick-service meals than non-users. This drop in impulse spending means billions in lost revenue across the fast-food companies.
When we think of fast-food in America, our first thought is of McDonalds. McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) stock opened 2025 near $292.51 per share, peaked at $321.29 in April, then slid to about $300 by November 2025 (Google Finance, 2025). In June, Morgan Stanley downgraded McDonalds to an “Underweight” rating, a move rare for a company of their market value, signaling doubt in the industry as a whole. Analysts warn that appetite suppression could lead to a stagnation in foot traffic and limit earnings growth. Management responded to this concern in declining demand by rolling out a $5 McValue Meal nationwide as an attempt to draw consumers to franchises. McDonald’s CEO, Chris Kempczinski, says that these $5 meal deals are driving other purchases, and “getting customers to spend more than just $5” (Business Insider, 2025), with the average check for a meal being north of $10.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), a brand known for being a “healthy” alternative to traditional fast-food has also faced some turmoil. Shares that reached $65 in mid-2024 have fallen to around $31 through late 2025 (Google Finance, 2025). Chipotle expects a sustained single digit decline in restaurant sales, possibly due to widespread GLP-1 adoption. Shares of Chipotle are down nearly 48% over the past 12 months, and the “last time investor sentiment on the chain was this bad was during its food-safety crisis roughly a decade ago” (MarketWatch, 2025).
Overall, the year-to-date market response has been more cautious if anything, but the success of fast-food companies like McDonalds and Chipotle rely on sustained traffic growth. If the prescriptions of GLP-1s jump from 7 to 15 million by 2030, as projected by Goldman Sachs, we could be looking at a huge shakeup in the market.
Retail Stocks
Companies in the retail sector are in a unique position, as their business model falls on both the good and bad slides of the “Ozemic Economy”. On one side, retailers selling GLP-1 drugs in their in-store pharmacies are racking up a profit, but on the other, consumers are buying less sugary snacks and drinks from the grocery departments of these big box retailers.
Walmart Inc. (WMT), the nation’s largest grocer and pharmacy operator, has seen the stock price rise about 15% year-to-date, trading near $100 as of November 2025 (Google Finance, 2025). In late 2023, Walmart CEO John Furner told NBC that consumers on these GLP-1 drugs were “buying less units” while in stores, greatly cutting into profits (NBC, 2023). The common sentiment among investors is that pharmacy growth will outweigh any potential grocery department losses, especially as Walmart is set to start selling Zepbound in addition to Ozemic in mid-November.
On the flip side, Target Corporation (TGT) shares have seen less success, falling sharply from a peak of $142.50 in January 2025 to around $91 in November 2025 (Google Finance, 2025). Target has taken more of an inventory approach to maintaining sales by increasing placement of “healthy living” private-label brands in stores. Such brands include “All in Motion”, focused on active wear and exercise equipment, as well as “Good & Gather”, health food options with no “artificial flavors, synthetic colors, artificial sweeteners and high fructose corn syrup” (Target Corporate, 2025). Sales from these private-label brands generate over $30 Billion a year for Target, roughly a third of the company’s yearly revenue. With recent changes to inventory and the increasing impact of private-label brands on overall revenue, analysts expect Target’s share price to rebound to $150 over the next 12 months.
In short, success in the retail sector will depend on how well these companies revisit and realign how they do business. Walmart and Target’s in-store pharmacies and “health and wellness” products are helping them deal with predicted grocery department losses. Implementing these changes appear to be a wise move for the two industry giants as analysts forecast “total prescription drug sales [worldwide] topping $1.7tn by 2030 – an increased growth rate of 7.7% [per year]” (Evaluate, 2024). This projected growth could go a long way to reshaping revenue composition across the retail sector.
Fitness Stocks
As Americans eat less, they are starting to exercise more as GLP-1s, notorious for accelerating fat and muscle loss, are prompting doctors to recommend healthier lifestyle choices for users such as, resistance training and increasing protein intake.
Planet Fitness (PLNT), one of the largest gym chains in the nation, has benefited greatly from the “Ozemic economy”. With shares hitting lows of $59 in mid 2024, now reaching past $103 in November 2025 (Google Finance, 2025). According to former Planet Fitness CEO Craig Benson “people that are on these drugs are more cognizant of what they eat, and they’re also more cognizant of what they do for exercise” (Athletech News, 2024). As more Americans are taking charge of their health, gyms will be able to address a new market of people seeking to complement their pharmaceutical solution to weight loss with fitness and exercise. Analysts at Jefferies now give the stock a “Buy” rating, projecting shares to trend up to $175 in the near future.
Even Peloton Interactive (PTON), a company left for dead after following the COVID-19 pandemic, has seen some notable success with shares below $3 in late 2024 reaching almost $7.50 in November (Google Finance, 2025). Peloton’s integration of medical-fitness programs targeted at GLP-1 users, through their partnership Twin Health, have been helping generate some serious hype for the company. For the first time since the highs of 2020, small influencers on TikTok and Instagram are talking about Peloton, bringing the company back to relevance and creating positive sentiment for the future.
As consumer dollars migrate away from self indulgence practices and flow toward self-improvement, we expect to see the already large $44.3 billion fitness market in the U.S continue to grow. If even a fraction of these GLP-1 users continue to spend money on gym memberships and athletic gear, the fitness sector is projected to grow by 8–9% annually through 2030 (MMCG Invest, 2025).
Potential Bias
It is important to take a moment to look at all of the factors currently playing on the market. Some financial and media outlets tend to overstate the effects of the “Ozempic economy” because it generates attention. Many of the same-store declines seen in some of these companies also reflect inflation and price fatigue in the market, not just the effects of widespread GLP-1 adoption. Currently, GLP-1 drugs are unaffordable for many Americans at around $500 per month, while insurance coverage is unlikely. Even if the number of GLP-1 users trends up, there might only be a small-to-moderate effect on consumer spending as a whole.
Historically, the economy has withstood numerous diet fads such as, low-carb in the 70’s, the ketogenic diet in the 90’s, and paleo diets of the early 2000’s, without significantly affecting demand. However, GLP-1 medications differ from past crazes as they chemically alter appetite, suppressing the urge to eat as a whole, not just changing what is consumed. Even if the impact in today’s market is modest, the future paints a different picture. As insurance companies prepare to expand coverage in the next two years, prescriptions could double, signaling that larger waves in the market are yet to come.
Conclusion
Shifting sentiment on weight-loss drugs in America, is creating a huge opportunity for investors to profit from companies that adequately adapt to these changes. Analysts at Goldman Sachs say “ US GDP could grow by an extra 1% if 60 million Americans took GLP-1 drugs by 2028” (Business Insider, 2024) Fast-food stocks are facing slower traffic growth and margin pressure unless swift action is taken in changing menu and lowering prices. Retail stocks navigating a change of consumption in stores where basket sizes are shrinking will be combated with increased investment to in-store pharmacies and inventory changes. Fitness stocks are emerging as some of the earlier beneficiaries of a change in how Americans view their health and wellbeing.
Ultimately, companies that turn appetite suppression into opportunities, will come out on top, while others that are slow to adapt to these changes will feel the consequences. The question now is not whether GLP-1 drugs will change spending in America, it’s how corporations will tailor long-term growth strategies to serve consumers who want less.
References
Athletech News. (2024). Planet Fitness sees renewed demand as GLP-1 users prioritize exercise. https://athletechnews.com
Business Insider. (2024). Goldman Sachs says GLP-1 drugs could boost U.S. GDP by 1%. https://www.businessinsider.com
Business Insider. (2025). McDonald’s $5 value meal aims to drive higher customer spending. https://www.businessinsider.com
Evaluate. (2024). World preview 2024: Outlook to 2030. https://www.evaluate.com
Food Business News. (2025). GLP-1 users cut spending on quick-service restaurants. https://www.foodbusinessnews.net
Goldman Sachs. (2024). The economic impact of GLP-1 adoption. https://www.goldmansachs.com
Google Finance. (2025). McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) stock price. https://www.google.com/finance
Google Finance. (2025). Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) stock price. https://www.google.com/finance
Google Finance. (2025). Planet Fitness, Inc. (PLNT) stock price. https://www.google.com/finance
Google Finance. (2025). Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) stock price. https://www.google.com/finance
Google Finance. (2025). Target Corporation (TGT) stock price. https://www.google.com/finance
Google Finance. (2025). Walmart Inc. (WMT) stock price. https://www.google.com/finance
MarketWatch. (2025). Chipotle stock slides amid demand concerns tied to GLP-1 drugs. https://www.marketwatch.com
MMCG Invest. (2025). U.S. fitness market outlook through 2030. https://www.mmcginvest.com
NBC News. (2023). Walmart CEO says GLP-1 users are buying fewer grocery items. https://www.nbcnews.com
PwC. (2024). The rise of GLP-1 drugs and consumer behavior shifts. https://www.pwc.com
Target Corporation. (2025). Owned brand portfolio and health-focused product strategy. https://corporate.target.com
